There is much speculation in Patna and New Delhi about the possibility of a political upheaval in Bihar, which can impact the stability of the Narendra Modi government. The BJP on its own has only 240 MPs in the Lok Saha (Lower House) and is dependent on N. Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (16 MPs), Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) (12 MPs) and other smaller National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners.
After newly-appointed Bihar Governor Arif Muhammad Khan visited Opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav at his Patna residence Wednesday evening, the latter dropped a bombshell inviting Chief Minister Nitish Kumar into the Opposition India Bloc.
The invitation could possibly be an attempt by Lalu Yadav to avert the scrutiny of the political commentariat into a very unlikely meeting between the NDA-appointed Governor and their sworn enemy. Soon after the meeting, Lalu said his doors are open for Nitish and all is forgiven.
Nitish, the original architect of the INDIA grouping had in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls crossed over to the ruling alliance. His party had won 12 seats offering crucial support to the BJP. Though the BJP has the support of over 50 MPs from various parties, a major ally getting restive or receiving an invitation from a political opponent is not a happy development.
Nitish and his lieutenant and Central minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh 'Lalan' have refused to even consider Lalu’s offer. But it has opened up political possibilities in Patna in the election year. The Bihar legislative assembly polls are scheduled for October later this year.
While Nitish made a cryptic response — "kya bol rahe hain (what are you saying?)" — Lalan vehemently dismissed talks of any such realignment pointing out the strength of the BJP-led alliance in Bihar. The NDA had won 30 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in the 2024 Parliamentary polls.
More than the numbers game, Nitish’s JDU switching sides will make the Modi government wobbly and dependent on its numerous, smaller allies –- many of whom are not happy with the treatment meted out to them by Big Brother BJP. For instance, the Shiv Sena was sulking over the distribution of portfolios in the Maharashtra government.