Defence
Deliberations at the biennial Aero India show, India’s marquee military aviation event, slated for next month at its usual venue of Yelahanka Air Force station in Bengaluru will markedly be different from their usual optimistic effervescence. The trigger is the release of images and videos by pro-Chinese PLA bloggers of what seemed to be the unveiling of one, and probably two, sixth-generation fighter aircraft.
Besides pipping the US in the race for a sixth-gen fighter (unless Pentagon already has a project it has kept under wraps), it showed up the stark difference in advancements made by the Chinese military aviation vis-à-vis India which is yet to seriously activate plans to develop a fifth-gen fighter jet. The news from the western front is also sombre. Pakistan is reportedly negotiating 40 fifth-gen fighters from China
The world over, development of military jet technology has moved in tandem with the manufacture of civilian aircraft; China is the only notable exception which has pumped in billions in military aviation research from its export surpluses but has a badly lagging civilian counterpart.
This is a moment of reckoning for Indian aviation. It overtook the UK to become the third-largest air passenger market in the year gone by. It is currently the fourth-largest defence spender in the world. But manufacturing is largely the domain of the public sector Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. It is supplemented by a fledgling private sector industry in which a Tata-Airbus project to make India’s first private-sector military aircraft could pave way for more such ventures.
The latest 20 major announcements in the Indian aviation sector show investments in green and brownfield airports, and imports of civil and military aircraft. But precious little in civilian and military manufacturing. The Government, however, has announced outlays for the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk-1A that will replace the MiG-21s, Light Combat Helicopters and basic trainer HTT-40 aircraft.
The nub of the matter is in stealth technology (fifth-gen) fighters. These conceal their weapons in an internal bay, thus preventing detection of their angularities by radars. As per prevailing war doctrines, their bombing runs in undetected enemy air space will pave the way for action by fourth-gen fighters like Rafale, Su-30MKI, Mirage-2000, MiG-29, and Tejas Mk-1.
Engine trouble is the first of the impediments that mar a build-up even among fourth-gen fighters. The Tejas Mk-II faces a moment of reckoning just like India’s first indigenous fighter HF-24 Marut. Started in 1961, Marut catapulted India among the sixth countries to build a supersonic jet aircraft. But the absence of engines led to the shelving of the project in 1985 with India opting for the Soviet MiG-23.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s just ended six-day visit to the US would have been aimed at ensuring that a similar fate does not befall the Tejas Mk-II. In June last year, US President Joe Biden had greenlighted a "trailblazing initiative" for 86% technology transfer of GE-414 engines, but procedural snarls have since tripped joint manufacturing plans in India. This was substantially more than the 58% negotiated by the previous United Progressive Alliance Government of Manmohan Singh in 2012.
An air of certainty on the production of these American engines in India would help HAL plan supply chains for the airframe, fuselage, weapon systems and other components. While the two versions of Tejas will replace the MiG-21 and Jaguar, manufacturing of the first fifth-generation Indian stealth fighters is at least a decade away by when China is estimated to have over 800. China’s "Iron Brother" Pakistan could also by then have laid its hands on some of them.
The country’s Central Budget for military spending, despite the introduction of the contractual Agniveer program for soldiers, will for some time remain heavily tilted towards accounting for salaries and pensions. The rise in capital outlay, or the portion for new purchases by the armed forces will rise gradually from the present 23%. This would rule out a complete greenfield project. Preference ought to be given to already functional aircraft manufacturers to cut costs by avoiding duplication of some facilities.
For a government not averse to oligarchist or duopolistic market concentrations in sectors needing heavy investments and long gestation periods such as ports, airports and energy, the two obvious candidates for the fifth-gen aircraft (called Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft in India) are HAL and the Tatas. The AMCA’s design is believed to be finalised and the manufacturer –will have to build at least half a dozen prototypes.
Yet some distance remains to be travelled. The first is the hunt for a foreign maker who is either eager or desperate to unbundle tightly-guarded jet fighter technologies to a joint venture in India. The next will be to evolve an eco-system that will ensure an uninterrupted supply in the country as the Tata Advanced Systems Limited- Airbus joint venture is attempting to do with 37 Indian suppliers and certified 21 specialised processes to assemble the C-295 military transport aircraft, said to be the best in its class.
The aftermath of the clash with China in 1962, compelled policy makers to form Aeronautics India Limited to manufacture MiG-21 aircraft. The shock of the Chinese sixth gen and Beijing’s announcement of upgrading the administrative structure of the region abutting Ladakh should shift the focus at the forthcoming Air Show from poseuse to more serious B-2-B meetings for developing a more vibrant aviation sector.
(The writer is a strategic affairs analyst. His email id is sandeep4731@gmail.com)